CAN THE MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND BE VIOLATED?

YES, IT CAN A CLOSING ABOVE 4930 WOULD PUT DOUBTS ON THE MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND, SO WATCH OUT THOSE LEVELS, AND THE TREND ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE IS OVER, NOW WHAT?, WHATS THE MEDIUM TERM VIEW?

THE MARKET HAS MADE A MEDIUM TERM TOP FOR A GOOD CORRECTION TO LAST BETWEEN 1-3 MONTHS, EVERY RALLY ENDS WTIH CORRECTIONS GIVING US OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE LONG TERM. REMEMBER ONE THING THIS CORRECTION HAS TO BE MINIMUM 4000 ON THE NIFTY FOR THE RESUMPTION OF THE LONGTERM UPTREND, WE COULD ALSO HAVE DEEPER CUTS BELOW 4000 NIFTY WHICH COULD TAKE US TO 3700-3800 AND IN EXTREME CASES MAYBE EVEN TO 3500, SO KEEP IN MIND 4000 IS THE MINIMUM TARGET FOR NIFTY IN THIS CORRECTION,ALWAYS KEEP 50-100 POINTS DIFFERENCE TO THIS LEVELS. U MARK MY WORDS, TIME WILL COME WHEN YOU WILL KNOW THE ACCURACY OF MY ANALYSIS. BELOW THE WEEKLY CHART OF NIFTY WILL SUPPORT MY VIEW.

NIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 30TH OCTOBER 2009

NIFTY SHOULD SEE A BOUNCE BACK TO 4850-4900-4950 IN THE SHORTERM AND THEN THE RESUMPTION OF THE DOWNTREND.

AS PREDICTED EARLER, THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE PREDICTIOIN NEVER FAILED SINCE AUGUST, STARTING IN JULY?

IN THIS AGE WHERE SO MANY ANALYSTS ONLINE/OFFLINE WHO CHANGE THEIR FORECAST LIKE TMRW IS A NEW DAY AND AS IF EVERYDAY MARKETS MAKE NEW PATTERNS, WHO END UP WITH SO MANY PREDICTIONS CONFUSING THE GENERAL PUBLIC WHO LOOK FOR GENUINE ANSWERS, WELL
SO HOW MUCH WILL YOU PAY ME FOR THIS PREDICTION AND ACCURACY?,I DONT NEED A DIME FOR THESE MEDIUM TERM PREDICTIONS, ALL IS IMPORTANT TO ME IS THAT YOU KNOW THE MARKET DIRECTION AND YOU DONT LOSE MONEY, I HAVE SEEN PEOPLE LOSE MONEY AND HOUSES GAMBLING THEIR WAY IN THE STOCK MARKET WITH NO KNOWLEDGE OR WRONG KNOWLEDGE FROM SO CALLED ANALYSTS WHO LOOK TO THEIR GAIN, EVEN AFTER GETTING PAID. VERY SOON I WOULD LOOKING TO START PAID SERVICES FOR STOCKS. BUT THE INDEX(NIFTY,SENSEX) PREDICTION WILL ALWAYS REMAIN FREE, SO THAT EVEN IF YOU DONT JOIN THE PAID SERVICES,YOU KNOW THE MARKET DIRECTION AND THAT YOU DONT LOSE MONEY. WISHING ALL OF YOU PROFITABLE TRADING.

THE CHART BELOW WILL SUPPORT MY VIEW OF MY PAST PREDICTION OF NIFTY:

WARNING..WARNING?, WE R CLOSER THAN EVER TO THE END OF THIS RALLY FROM OCTOBER 2008 LOW, SO BEWARE OF YOUR LONGS!!!

THE MARKET HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE SINCE JULY TO PERFECTION AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN IT FORECAST, WE R AT THE LAST UPMOVE RALLY IN THE MARKET AND THE TARGET FOR NIFTY COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 5150-5300 OR AT 5150 OR 5300, 10-30 POINTS SHORT OF 5150 COULD ALSO HAPPEN, SO IT IS BETTER TO STAY OUT OF LONGS. THE CHART BELOW WILL SUPPORT MY VIEW.

ATLAST THE 3RD WAVE OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE IS OVER, NOW WHAT NEXT?

THE 3RD WAVE OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE HAS BEEN A LONG ONE AND A TIME CONSUMING ONE, BUT THAT DOESNOT CHANGE OUR VIEW OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE FOR NIFTY, I HAVE SEEN SO MANY ANALYSTS ONLINE WHO HAVE KEPT CHANGING THEIR FORECAST AGAIN AND AGAIN, BUT I HAVE STUCK TO MY FORECAST SINCE JULY 09, AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THEN, THE MARKET HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE PATTERN TILL NOW. CHECK THE CHART BELOW TO KNOW WHERE WE R RIGHT NOW. THIS IS A LINEAR SCALE CHART TO MAKE THE CHART MORE CLEAR, ON A LOG SCALE CHART WE HAVE ALMOST DONE WITH THE 4TH WAVE OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE.

MARKET ANALYSIS FOR 22ND SEP 2009

MARKET STILL SEEMS TO BE IN THE 3RD WAVE OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE, THE TARGET OF 5050 ON NIFTY STILL LOOKS ACHIEVABLE, EITHER WE CORRECT THIS WEEK COMPLETING THE TARGET OF 5050 OR 5000 ON NIFTY COULD BE THE END OF THE 3RD WAVE, WE WOULD KNOW THIS IN THIS COMING WEEK.

IS THE MARKET GOING TO CORRECT OR NOT?, WHY SO LONG?

YES, THE MARKET IS TAKING MUCH MORE TIME IN EVERY RALLY AND CORRECTIVE DOWNFALL, ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLES ALWAYS TEST OUR PATIENCE, ITS A TIME CONSUMING PATTERN WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENTS AT TIMES. SO WE OUGHT TO WAIT TO SEE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHETHER WE R STILL IN THE 3RD WAVE OF THE TRIANGLE OR WILL WE GET A 4TH WAVE CORRECTION. THE OTHER OPTION BEING THAT THIS UPMOVE COULD BE THE 5TH WAVE OF THE TRIANGLE. WE WOULD KNOW IN FEW DAYS TIME.

WHEN WILL THE MARKET CORRECT, THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION ON EVERYBODYS MIND?

IS THIS GOING TO BE A 4TH WAVE CORRECTION OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE OR DO WE COMPLETE A 5TH WAVE OF THE TRIANGLE IN THIS UPMOVE, WELL A CORRECTION STILL NEEDS TO COME EITHER WAYS, SO EXPECT IT ANYTIME, IT COULD BE TMRW, DAYAFTER OR STARTING FROM MONDAY, U GOT TO BE ON YOUR GUARD, BE CAREFUL WITH YOUR LONGS, TAKE MY WORD, THE MARKET IS SURELY GOING TO CORRECT.

NIFTY RESISTANCE!!

AS SHARED EARLIER 4820-4840 BEING THE FIRST RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY IS TURNING OUT TO BE A STIFF RESISTANCE, THE MAX TARGET THAT I HAVE PUT WAS 4880-4890, WE SHOULD SEE A CORRECTION SOON.

FREE TIPS

RELIANCE COMPLETED ITS TARGET IN OUR FREE TIP SECTION GIVEN EARLIER AT 2020-2030

TARGET AND RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY FOR 8TH SEPTEMBER 2009

1ST TGT 4820-4840
2ND TGT 4880-4890

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE MARKET IS THE QUESTION IN EVERYBODYS MIND?

JUST AS SHARED EARLIER WE HAVE A CONFIRMED SCENARIO 2 SHARED EARLIER IN THIS BLOG WHICH IS THAT WE R FORMING AN ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE, BUT WHERE WE R IN THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE IS A BIG QUESTION RIGHT NOW?, WE RIGHT NOW R IN 2 SITUATIONS IN THIS FORMATION OF ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE, ONE IS EITHER WE R IN THE LAST UPMOVE OF THIS TRIANGLE OR WE R EXPECTING A CORRECTION AFTER THIS UPMOVE AND THEN THERE IS A LAST UPMOVE LEFT.


THIS IS A CHART SHOWING THAT WE R IN THE 3RD WAVE OF THE 5 WAVE TRIANGLE IN WHICH A LAST UPMOVE WOULD BE PENDING AFTER THIS UPMOVE IS OVER AND A CORRECTION AFTER THIS THEN A LAST UPMOVE, IN THIS PATTERN FORMATION BELOW TIME WISE 8/9TH SEP 2009 WOULD JUST ALOW A CORRECTION FOR THE 4TH WAVE:



THE CHART BELOW SHOWS US THE SITUATION WHERE WE COULD BE IN THE LAST UPMOVE OF THIS TRIANGLE AND THEN WE BREAKDOWN AFTER THAT:

FREE TIPS

ONLY RELIANCE TRIGGERED A BUY CALL, HOLD IF YOU HAVE POSITION FOR A TARGET OF 2020-2030, WELSPUN GUJ AND GODREJ INDUSTRIES HAVE NOT YET TRIGGERED A BUY CALL, SO IF YOU DO NOT GET THE PRICES TO BUY THAT HAVE BEEN MENTIONED, JUST LEAVE THEM AS IT IS, BECAUSE GODREJ COULD HAVE SEEMED TO HAVE TAKEN SUPPORT AROUND 174-176, AND WELSPUN BETWEEN 228-231, BUT WE STILL NEET TO WATCH THEM IF THEY FALL IN THE SECOND HALF OF TRADING SESESSION OF FRIDAY OR MONDAY MORNING, IF THEY DONT GIVE YOU A BUY SIGNAL AT THE PRICE MENTIONED, JUST LEAVE THEM AND GO ALONG WITH RELIANCE INDUSTRIES AS FOR NOW.

STOCKS TO BUY FOR 3-4TH &7th SEPTEMBER 2009

POSITIONAL TRADING.

BUY RELIANCE BETWEEN 1900-1930 TGT 2020-2030 SL 1870
BUY WELSPUN GUJARAT BETWEEN 218-222 TGT 250 SL 208
BUY GODREJ INDS BETWEEN 163-167 TGT 185-190 SL 153

**WORD OF CAUTION** STOPLOSS SHOULD ALWAYS BE CONSIDERED MORE ON A CLOSING PRICE THAN AN INTRADAY SWING, IF YOU ARE SURE THE STOCK IS GOING TO CLOSE AROUND THE SAME PRICE OF STOPLOSS OR BELOW IT, THEN YOU SHOULD BE SURE ENOUGH TO EXIT THE STOCK.

DOES 9TH SEPTEMBER SPEAK ANYTHING IN TERMS OF TIME THEORY FOR SENSEX,NIFTY?

DOES 9TH SEPTEMBER SPEAK ANYTHING IN TERMS OF TIME THEORY FOR SENSEX,NIFTY?, YES IT DOES, IT WAS 9TH MARCH 2009, THAT OUR BOTTOM WAS MADE BEFORE THE UPTREND, ACCORDYING TO GANN A CHANGE OF TREND DO COME AT THE END OF 26 WEEKS, 6 MONTHS, ALRIGHT, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?, WE FINISH EXACTLY 26 WEEKS AND 6 MONTHS ON 9TH SEPTEMBER, AND GUESS WHAT WE MADE OUR LAST UPTREND IN THE LAST BULL RUN UPTO 21000 ON 9TH JAN 2008, IT WAS FROM 10TH JAN2008 THAT WE STARTED FALLING.THE NUMBER 9 IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT TO OUR MARKET, WE FINISH 210 TRADING DAYS FROM OCTOBER LOW, 183 CALENDAR DAYS FROM 9TH MARCH 2009 LOW,26 WEEKS,6 MONTHS, CAN A DATE AROUND 9TH SEPTEMBER BE A TURNAROUND DATE, MAYBE 8TH,9TH,10TH OR 11TH.

WHEN WILL THE DOW FALL, WHEN IS THE CHANGE IN TREND?

WE HAVE BEEN WAITING SINCE MID AUGUST 2009 FOR A CHANGE IN TREND OF THE DOW JONES, WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?, FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. WE R STILL IN AN EXPANDING BEARISH TRIANGLE, THE TOPPING PROCESS IN THE DOW JONES HAS TAKEN MUCH MORE TIME THAN EXPECTED, BUT THAT DOESNOT CHANGE OUR FORECAST FOR A BAD US MARKET IN COMING MONTHS!!

WHEN TO EXPECT A FALL IN SENSEX?, A WORD OF CAUTION!!

TIME WISE SENSEX WOULD FINISH 210 TRADING DAYS ON SEP 9TH IF NO HOLIDAYS IN BETWEEN, ACCORDYING TO TIME THEORY MANY TREND CHANGES HAPPEN SOMEWHERE AROUND 210 TRADING DAYS, AND PLUS EVEN THE MOON MOVEMENTS SUGGEST OF A TURNAROUND AROUND 8-10 SEPTEMBER, TAKING TWO THREE DAYS UP AND DOWN CONSIDERATION THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER TIMEWISE SEEMS TO BE THE PERIOD FOR CHANGE OF TREND. BE PREPARED, WHETHER WE WILL CONTINUE THIS BULLRUN OR NOT WILL ONLY BE ANSWERED ONCE WE MAKE ANOTHER HIGHER BOTTOM FOR THE RALLY FROM 7700 TO 16000+ OR IF WE DONT DECOUPLE FROM THE UNITED STATES, THEN WE HAVE TO FURTHER SEE WHERE THIS DOWNTREND COULD GO.

BE CAREFUL WITH GOING LONG WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AND BE READY TO GET OUT IF YOU FEEL THE TREND HAS CHANGED.

COULD NIFTY BE FORMING AN ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE?

IS THE MARKET FORMING AN ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE JUST AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST SCENARIO AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN OUR 3 SCENARIOS?,COMPARING NIFTY WHEN IT MADE AN ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE BEFORE THE HIGH OF 6357 on 8/1/2008 WITH OUR LATEST PATTERN FORMING ON NIFTY AS ON 27TH AUG 2009, THERE SEEM TO BE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THEM AND COULD THE LATEST PATTERN FORMING ON NIFTY BE AN ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE JUST LIKE THE ONE IN JAN 2008, LET SEE BOTH THE CHARTS TO COMPARE THE FORMATION OF THE PATTERN

CHART OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE FORMATION AS ON JAN 2008



CHART OF THE LATEST PATTERN FORMING ON NIFTY AS ON 27TH AUG 2009, COULD IT BE FORMING AND ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE?

WHICH R THE SECTORS OUTPERFORMING THE MARKET?

THE ANSWER:

IT
AUTO
PART OF PHARMA AND HEALTHCARE

WHICH SECTORS ARE OUTPERFORMING OUR MARKET?

U WILL BE SUPRISED WHAT THESE SO CALLED ANALYSTS ON T.V. NEWS CHANNELS ARE TELLING NOT TO BUY, ARE THE SECTORS ACTUALLY OUTPERFORMING THE MARKETS. COMING SOON!!!

LATEST ANALYSIS ON NIFTY FOR 24TH AUG 2009

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE MARKET?, WHAT IS THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET?, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE HAVE 3 SCENARIOS FOR MARKET DIRECTION AND WE HAVE TO SEE WHICH ONE WILL EVENTUALLY GET FULFILLED, IN THIS LATEST ANALYSIS I HAVE SHARED ABOUT TERMINATATION OF THE 2 SCENARIO FOR SHORTERM IF 4550 IS BROKEN. IF WE FALL TMRW, ONLY THAT CAN AGAIN OPEN OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE SECOND SCENARIO, AND MORE CONFIRMATIONS WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE FULFILLMENT OF THE 2 SCENARIO.

R U AN EMOTIONAL TRADER, ASK YOURSELF?

ONLY PROFESSIONAL TRADERS MAKE MONEY IN THE MARKET ON A CONSISTENT BASIS, IT IS ONLY THEY WHO CAN MAKE A LIVING OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET,IF YOUR AN EMOTIONAL TRADER, THEN EITHER YOU LOSE YOUR CAPITAL OR YOU NEVER ARE IN PROFIT ON YOUR PORTFOLIO.

ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS TO KNOW IF R IN THE WORLD OF EMOTIONAL TRADERS:

1) FEAR OF LOSING PROFITS(YOU CUT YOUR PROFITS SHORT DUE TO CHANGE OF PLAN BECAUSE OF THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE STOCK PRICE DURING MARKET HOURS).

2) YOU HOPE TOO MUCH WHEN THE STOCK GOES YOUR WAY AND YOU ARE IN GOOD PROFITS, BUT JUST FORGET TO HAVE A TARGET TO SELL STOCKS AND DONT EVENTUALLY SELL THE STOCK, BUT KEEP HOPING AND WAITING FOR MORE INCREASE IN STOCK PRICE DUE TO YOUR GREED.

3) FEAR OF LOSING TOO MUCH MONEY, THEREFORE SELLING YOUR STOCK TOO EARLY WHEN IT GOES AGAINST YOU, AND HAVING INPROPER STOPLOSS AND THEN THE STOCK EVENTUALLY RUNS BACK UP

4) MORE CONCERNED ABOUT OTHER ANALYSTS BEING RIGHT OR WRONG ON MARKET DIRECTON, BUT NOT FOCUSED ABOUT HOW YOU CAN MAKE MONEY ON INDIVIDUAL STOCK MOVEMENTS.

5) YOU LOSE MONEY ON CONSISTENT BASIS, BUT NEVER TRY TO FIND OUT WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU THAT MAKES YOU LOSE MONEY, EVEN IF YOU KNOW IT, YOU TRY TO IGNORE IT DUE TO YOUR EGO.

6) NEWS SCARES YOU AND IF DOW JONES FALLS OR OTHER MARKET ARE DOWN, YOU PANIC THINKING OUR MARKET WILL CRASH

7) NO MONEY MANAGEMENT, NO STRATEGIES, NO PROPER PLAN FOR STOCKS, JUST BUY AND BUY BECAUSE THIS STOCK IS GOING UP, AND YES YOU ARE WATCHING THE STOCK PRICE ON THE SCREEN AND HEART GOES POUNDING BUY, BUY, BUY NOT KNOWING ITS AT THE TOP.

8) HOPE TOO MUCH FOR THE STOCK TO GO BACK UP ONCE IT GOES AGAINST YOU AND IS MUCH BELOW YOUR PRICE AND NOT CONCERNED TO FOLLOW YOUR STOPLOSS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN INVESTOR BY KEEPING THE STOCK FOR LONG TIME.

9) YOUR PLAN IS NOT SO IMPORTANT, BUT YOU LOVE IT WHEN THE STOCK PRICE KEEP GOING UP AND YOUR EMOTIONS ARE RUNNING HIGH, YOU ONLY THINK ABOUT THE MONEY YOU CAN MAKE, SO YOU BUY NOT FOLLOWING YOUR PLAN.

10) YOU NEVER LISTEN TO A PROFESSIONAL TRADER ABOUT YOUR MISTAKES, AND YOU REPEAT THE SAME MISTAKES OVER AND OVER, YOUR EGO DOESNOT ALLOW YOU TO LEARN.

R U AN EMOTIONAL TRADER, ASK YOURSELF, IF YOU R, THEN YOUR IN THE DANGER ZONE, AND YOU HAVE TO COME OUT OF THE DANGER ZONE

WITH ALL YOUR GETTING GET KNOWLEDGE, FORSAKE HOPE, FEAR AND GREED.

IS INDEX ANALYSIS OF SENSEX OR NIFTY IMPORTANT FOR DAILY TRADING IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS?

THE ANSWER IS NO, KNOWING THE DIRECTION OF NIFTY AND SENSEX IS NOT SO IMPORTANT FOR DAILY TRADING IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, NOW U MUST BE THINKING, BUT DONT STOCKS GO DOWN IF MARKET GOES DOWN, THE ANSWER IS YES, THEY DO, BUT ASK YOURSELF A QUESTION?, DO ALL STOCKS GO DOWN WHEN MARKET GOES DOWN, THE ANSWER IS NO!!, U CAN TRADE AND ENTER STOCKS EVEN WHEN MARKET IS IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, BUT YOU NEED TO RECOGNISE THOSE STOCKS. HAPPY TRADING.

WE R IN THE MOST TRICKIEST SENSEX NIFTY CHARTS WITH NO CONFIRMATIONS FOR ANY WAVE COUNT!!!

R WE STILL IN THE SECOND SCENARIO THAT I MENTIONED EARLIER, YES, BUT ONLY FOR NOW, MARKET IS REALLY TRICKY NOW AND BUYING AND SELLING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY ON BREAKOUTS EITHER UP OR DOWN ON THE INDICES,WE YET HAVE NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ON OUR TECHNICAL INDICATORS,BUT A CONFIRMATION FOR THOSE WILL COME ONCE WE BREAK 4350 ON NIFTY WHICH WILL ALSO CONFIRM OUR SECOND SCENARIO AND THEN GOING TOWARDS THE FIRST TARGET OF 4200-4250.HOLD STRICT STOPLOSS WHILE TRADING.BUT REMEMBER ONE OF THE THREE SCENARIOS MENTIONED EARLIER SHOULD HAPPEN.

WHICH SCENARIO AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE WE AFTER TODAY FALL?

WE ARE MOST PROBABLY IN SCENARIO 2, BUT WE HAVE TO STILL FOLLOW UP ON IT, MORE ANALYSIS COMING!!!

3 SCENARIO'S OF ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT, ONE OF THEM IS SURE TO HAPPEN IN THE MARKET?

I HAVE ALREADY SHARED EARLIER ABOUT OUR BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE SCENARIO, NOW I WOULD LIKE TO SHARE OUR BEARISH SCENARIO, SINCE SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER ARE NOT SUCH GOOD MONTHS, I AM MORE INCLINED TOWARDS THE BEARSH SCENARIOS

FIRST SCENARIO:

THIS IS WHERE WE ARE MAKING A 5TH WAVE EXTENSION AND WOULD WOULD FALL ONCE THE EXTENSION IS OVER, IN THIS WE ARE FORMING AN ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE, WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE C WAVE OR 3RD WAVE OF THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE HAVING 2 MORE WAVES TO COMPLETE



SECOND SCENARIO:

MY SECOND SCENARIO IS EITHER WE TEST THE PREVIOUS TOP AND THEN FALL, OR WE START FALLING FROM THE NEXT WEEK ONWARDS AS THE 5TH WAVE WOULD BE TERMED COMPLETED.



THIRD SCENARIO:
AS SHARED EARLIER OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SENSEX GOING TO 17500-17900.

I HAVE POSTED THE CHART FOR THIS EARLIER, YOU CAN BROWSE BELOW AND CHECK THE CHART.

NOW THE BIG QUESTION, HOW DO WE TRADE THESE SCENARIOS, IF WE FALL NEXT WEEK WITH 700-800 POINTS ON THE SENSEX THEN CONSIDER THE 2ND SCENARIO TO BE IN COMMAND OR IF WE WE MAKE A DOUBLE TOP AGAIN AT 16000 AND FALL BELOW 15000, THEN CONSIDER THE SECOND SCENARIO, THE TRICKY ONE IS THE FIRST AND THE LAST SCENARIO, SINCE IN THE FIRST SCENARIO WE DO MAKE MARGINALLY NEW HIGHS,THIS COULD TAKE US ANYWHERE BETWEEN 16200-16500, I GUESS WE HAVE TO TRADE THE FIRST AND THIRD SCENARIO WITH STRICT STOPLOSS, SINCE A CONVINCING BREAKOUT WITH HUGE VOLUMES ABOVE 16200 COULD ALSO TAKE SENSEX ABOVE 17000, AND TAKE US TO THE LIKELY 3RD BULLISH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORTERM. PREPARE YOURSELF. I AM MORE INCLINE TOWARDS THE SECOND SCENARIO WHERE WE MAKE MARGINALLY NEW HIGHS AND COMPLETE THE ENDING DIAGONAL TRIANGLE.

AN ALTERNATIVE BULLISH COUNT FOR SENSEX, IS IT POSSIBLE FOR US TO GO TO 17500-17900?

AN ALTERNATIVE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT SUGGEST US THAT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR US TO GO TO 17500-17900 ON SENSEX ONLY IF 16050-16200 IS SIGNIFICANTLY BROKEN, OTHERWISE OUR BEARISH COUNT IN THE MEDIUM TERM IS INTACT WITH A VERY HIGH RETRACEMENT OF THE DOWN RALLY FROM 16050 TO 14700.IF 14700 IS BROKEN ON THE DOWNSIDE THEN THE BULLISH COUNT WILL NOT BE COUNTED ANYMORE.

FIRST SENSEX TARGET FOR TMRW AND GREAT RESISTANCE AT 15180-15200

WE HAVE JUST BROKEN THE UPWARD TRENDLINE WHICH GIVES US A BEARISH SCENARIO FOR SENSEX FOR COMING DAYS EVEN IF WE RALLY FROM HERE IN THE SHORT TERM, WE HAVE TO BREAK 15200 ON SENSEX FOR A GOOD SHORTERM RALLY.

SENSEX LOOKING BEARISH WITH ITS MACD DIVERGENCE AND LOWER TOP

R THE DATA PROVIDED BY THE US GOVERNMENT RELIABLE?

The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist, Investment U
Associate Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, November 12, 2008: Issue #884

Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…

You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).

Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old.

If you want to know when the global slowdown that’s erased $28 trillion in wealth (so far) will finally reverse course, pay attention to the obscure Baltic Dry Index. And nothing else. Here’s why…

What Is The Baltic Dry Index?

Despite the name, the Baltic Dry Index has nothing to do with markets in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. Instead, it’s all about the cost of shipping major raw materials. Like iron ore, coal, grain, cement, copper, sand and gravel, fertilizer, even plastic granules.

The value for the index is determined by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its origins back to 1744. Each day, the exchange canvasses hundreds of brokers around the world for price quotes on moving goods. For instance: Shipping 100,000 tons of coal from South Africa to Japan, or 50,000 tons of iron ore from Australia to China. It then aggregates the quotes to form the Baltic Dry Index.

Basic economic principles of supply and demand explain the significance of the index…

The supply of cargo ships is tight and inelastic. It takes roughly two years to build a new cargo ship. And the high cost of each prohibits docking ships during slow periods. In other words, a change in cargo rates does not change the number of ships in operation. So even the slightest changes in demand for shipping raw materials results in a change in the index.

And because the index tracks the cost of shipping raw materials – the precursors of economic output – instead of intermediate or finished goods, it provides a precise and rare measurement of the volume of global trade at the earliest possible stage.

A sharp move up, means global trade is increasing. Conversely, a sharp move down, means it’s decreasing. Since global economic activity ultimately influences the equity markets, sharp moves in the Baltic Dry Index often predict and precede similar moves in the equity markets.

4 Reasons to Favor The Baltic Dry Index

Of course, there are other reasons to favor the Baltic Dry Index over other leading indicators, including:

No room for speculation. The index is not tradable, which means the only people booking cargo ships are those with actual cargo to ship. That makes the Baltic Dry Index, as economist Howard Simons put it, “totally devoid of speculative content.”
Not subject to revisions. Unlike almost every other piece of economic data, the Baltic Dry Index is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis. The price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.

An inability to be manipulated. Governments, both here and abroad, love to “massage” economic data, especially inflation figures. Obviously, it’s difficult to base investment decisions off incomplete or “mostly” accurate data. But because of the way the Baltic Dry Index is measured, that’s simply not possible. Again, the price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.

Real-time, daily updates. We all know markets shift fast. And in turn, we need indicators able to reflect those sudden movements. At best, we only get weekly updates for other leading indicators. And all are backward looking. The Baltic Dry Index represents the only indicator with “real-time” updates. And such frequency dramatically increases its relevancy and value.

In light of the above, it doesn’t take a market maven to predict what direction the index’s been heading lately – practically straight down. Here’s the thing. The Baltic Dry Index started plummeting in early June, before the global equity markets went into a tailspin, proving its predictive abilities.

So if you’re looking for a clear indication of a market bottom, forget about any other leading indicator or popular convention. Just look for the Baltic Dry Index to start trending noticeably higher.

Good investing,

Lou Basenese

DOW JONES WILL FALL, YES IT WILL FALL, JUST HOLD YOUR NERVES, ITS COMING!!!

EXPANDING BEARISH LIMITING TRIANGLE, CHANNEL, RSI, STOCHASTICS, FIBONACCI, ALL GIVING CLUES OF A CHANGE OF TREND JUST AROUND THE CORNER.

LATEST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FOR SENSEX!!!

WE HAVE FINISHED THE 5 SUBWAVES UP AND THEREFORE FINISHED THE 1ST WAVE AND NOW WE ARE ON THE 2ND WAVE DOWN. TARGET MINIMUM 13000 MAX 11000

FINALLY THE FALL!!!

NOR DID NIFTY SUSTAIN ABOVE 4710 FOR A BREAKOUT, NOR DID TECH MAHINDRA GO AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 870, SO NO BREAKOUTS HAPPENED TODAY,OUR HOPES R CRUSHED, BUT FINALLY THE FALL OF SENSEX AS PREDICTED EARLIER HAS HAPPENED, WAIT FOR MORE ANALYSIS COMING!!!

TECH MAHINDRA HOLDING 830 SUPPORT VERY WELL, CAN IT BREAKOUT ON THE UPSIDE IF WE BREAK AND TRADE ABOVE 870?, LETS HOPE IT DOES

CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN FOR NIFTY INTRADAY AS ON 5TH AUG, CAN WE HAVE A INTRADAY BREAKOUT ONLY ABOVE 4710 TMRW, TARGET 4750-4770

LETS HOPE WE TAKE A STRONG SUPPORT AT 4710, AND ALSO TAKE OFF THE HIGH OF 4730, THIS IS NOT A MARKET TO BUY AGGRESSIVELY, WE SHOULD WAIT AND WATCH FOR A BREAKOUT ABOVE 4800 OR A BREAKDOWN.

CHECK THE S&P 500 ELLIOTT WAVE CHART

IS THE FALL OF SENSEX STILL GOING TO HAPPEN?

WE NEED TO CORRECT WITHIN THE PERIOD OF 5TH AUGUST TO 15TH AUGUST 2009 OTHERWISE THE TIME PERIOD WOULD EXHAUST, IF NOT THEN WE MAY HAVE A BREAKOUT ABOVE 16200 SENSEX TAKING IT BEYOND 17000, IF WE DONT CORRECT THEN THIS MAY EVENTUALLY TURN OUT BAD FOR OUR MARKET AND A BIGGER FALL COULD BE EXPECTED IN THE FUTURE, EXTREME BLOWOFFS IN THE MARKET ALWAYS HAVE EXTREME CORRECTIONS, LETS HOPE WITH CORRECTION WITHIN THIS TIME PERIOD SO THAT THE MARKET WOULD BE EVENLY BALANCED FOR THE FUTURE.

WARNING!!!, WE ARE CLOSER TO THE FALL OF SENSEX

FIBONACCI RATIO OF 1.618 CONFIRMS, FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF 61.80% CONFIRMS, PENUMBRAL LUNAR ECLIPSE CONFIRMS, ELLIOTT WAVE CONFIRMS 5TH WAVE, GANN TIME PERIOD OF 183 DAYS CONFIRMS, RSI CONFIRMS, STOCHASTICS CONFIRMS, AND NOW LOW VOLUMES WITH HIGHER HIGHS CONFIRMS, HOW MANY MORE CONFIRMATIONS YOU REQUIRE!!!

CAN WE EXPECT A MARKET CRASH NEXT WEEK?

NORMALLY LUNAR ECLIPSE WITH TIME PERIOD ON ITS SIDE PROVES TO ALWAYS BE A TREND CHANGING INDICATOR, WE CAN EXPECT A DAY BEFORE OR AFTER THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THE NEXT WEEK FOR THE FALL OF THE STOCK MARKET,DOLLAR IS READY FOR A CHANGE OF TREND, OIL, COMMODITIES READY FOR A CHANGE IN TREND.

WHAT COULD BE THE TOP FOR SENSEX?

ON THE BASIS OF THE EARLIER POST SENSEX SHOULD TOP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 15600-16200, CAN WE HAVE A BREAKOUT ABOVE 16200? ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARKET, BUT ANALYSIS GIVE US A STRONG INDICATION THAT THE END OF THIS TREND FROM MARCH LOW COULD BE NEARING AND A TOP COULD COME ANY MOMENT, BUT THE CORRECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW WILL ONLY BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY MORE CLOSE TO ITS BOTTOM AS FROM THIS BOTTOM WE GO TO GREAT HEIGHTS.

FIBONACCI, GANN, ELLIOTT WAVE ALL CONFIRM THAT SENSEX IS CLOSE TO A TOP

LATEST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FOR SENSEX 31/7/2009

BEAUTY OF GANN TIME PERIOD THEORY

THE MAGIC OF MOVING AVERAGES

LATEST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT ON DOW JONES

CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN--CENTURY TEXTILE

CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN--BHUSHAN STEEL

EXPANDING LIMITING TRIANGLE---HDIL

CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN--TECH MAHINDRA

CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN--ASHOK LEYLAND

SENSEX ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT